NOBLE SUPPLY & LOGISTICS, LLC

Three detectors fired for Noble Supply & Logistics. Benford's Law analysis found the leading digits of award amounts deviate significantly from expected natural distribution, with digit 1 appearing in only 19% of transactions versus the expected 30%, while digits 3 and 2 appear more frequently than typical. Modification Growth detected a single parent contract that grew 2,986 times its initial value through modifications, vastly exceeding the 35-fold average growth ratio for peers in the same machinery manufacturing sector. Isolation Forest flagged the entity as a multivariate outlier based on its combined profile of high total dollars, massive award count, concentration across only two agencies, and heavy modification activity.

The Benford test yielded a KS statistic of 0.107 with p-value below 1e-70 across 7,029 transactions. The worst-performing contract SPE4AX23D9409 showed a growth ratio of 2,986 against a peer average of 35, producing a z-score of 8.24 standard deviations above the sector mean. The entity's lifetime obligated total is $2.1 billion across 7,029 awards, concentrated with only two agencies, and the Isolation Forest raw anomaly score was -0.79.

These statistical signals warrant scrutiny but do not confirm fraud. Benford deviations can occur legitimately in procurement if award amounts cluster around contract vehicles or pricing tiers. The extreme modification growth on a single contract may reflect legitimate scope expansion or a long-term supply relationship rather than improper billing. The entity's concentration with two agencies and high modification frequency could reflect specialized supplier status or a dominant customer relationship. The small peer group in this NAICS code may also inflate z-scores.