AAR SUPPLY CHAIN, INC

Three detectors flagged AAR Supply Chain. Benford's Law analysis found the leading digits of award amounts deviate significantly from expected frequency, with digit 1 appearing in only 19 percent of transactions versus the expected 30 percent. Modification growth on contract SPE4AX24D9401 expanded at a rate nearly 30 times faster than peers in the same industry classification. An Isolation Forest multivariate analysis identified the entity as a statistical outlier based on its combination of high dollar volume, concentrated agency relationships, and frequent contract modifications.

The Benford test produced a KS statistic of 0.110 with p-value 3.3e-21 across 1,968 transactions totaling 340 million dollars lifetime. The modification growth ratio reached 913.6 compared to a NAICS average of 31.0, yielding a z-score of 6.6 standard deviations above peer behavior. The Isolation Forest anomaly score was 0.934 on a 0-to-1 scale, reflecting extreme multivariate distance from typical entities.

These statistical signals warrant scrutiny but do not prove misconduct. Benford deviations can reflect legitimate business practices in specialized manufacturing. The entity's concentration with a single agency and high modification frequency may reflect long-term prime contractor status rather than fraud. The peer group for aircraft parts manufacturing is relatively small, potentially amplifying apparent anomalies. Industry context and contract documentation should be reviewed to determine whether these patterns reflect normal operations or genuine risk.