SIMMONDS PRECISION PRODUCTS INC

Simmonds Precision Products fired four detectors. Benford's law analysis found the leading-digit distribution of its 495 awards significantly deviates from expected frequencies, with digits 2 and 3 appearing more often than theory predicts and digit 1 appearing less often. A modification-growth detector identified contract N0038317GAG01 as having modifications that grew 132.77 times in value, far exceeding the 6.19 average growth ratio for peer firms in the same NAICS code. An isolation-forest multivariate analysis flagged the entity as a statistical outlier based on its feature profile. Finally, sole-source concentration was elevated, with 91.9 percent of awards being sole-source, compared to a peer median of 45.2 percent.

The Benford test yielded a KS statistic of 0.107 with p-value 0.000023 across 495 transactions. The modification-growth z-score was 6.40, indicating the worst award's growth ratio deviated 6.4 standard deviations above the peer mean. The isolation score was 0.797 on a 0-to-1 scale. Sole-source concentration z-score was 1.20, with 455 of 495 total awards classified as sole-source. The entity has a lifetime obligated total of 174.2 million dollars across a single awarding agency.

These detectors identify statistical anomalies warranting scrutiny, not proof of misconduct. Benford deviations can arise from legitimate business practices or data-collection methods. The modification-growth signal is notable but may reflect specialized defense contracting where a single critical contract receives substantial scope changes. The entity's concentration with one agency and high sole-source ratio are common in specialized aerospace manufacturing where technical requirements limit competition. The peer group for this NAICS code contains 328 entities, providing reasonable statistical power.