SKOOKUM EDUCATIONAL PROGRAMS

Four detectors flagged Skookum Educational Programs. Benford's Law analysis of 328 award amounts shows significant deviation from expected leading-digit frequencies, with digit 1 appearing 22.6% of the time versus the expected 30.1%, and digit 2 appearing 15.2% versus 17.6%. A parent contract modification grew at 81.6 times its initial value, substantially outpacing the 11.3x average growth ratio for comparable janitorial-services contractors. Isolation Forest identified the entity as a multivariate outlier based on its combination of high total dollars, award count, and modification frequency concentrated across just two agencies. All 328 awards were sole-source, placing the entity 2.8 standard deviations above the median sole-source rate of zero percent for its peer group of 166 contractors.

The Benford test yielded a Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic of 0.099 with p-value 0.0032 across 328 transactions. The worst-performing contract (W911S823D0006) in NAICS 562991 showed a modification growth ratio of 81.58 against a peer average of 11.28, producing a z-score of 3.66. The isolation anomaly score was 0.81 on a 0-1 scale. Sole-source awards comprised 100% of the entity's portfolio versus a peer median of 0% and standard deviation of 0.35.

These statistical signals warrant scrutiny but do not confirm fraud. Benford deviations can arise from legitimate clustering in contract values or agency-specific pricing. The entity's educational mission may explain concentration with HHS and reliance on sole-source awards for specialized services. However, the combination of extreme modification growth, universal sole-source status, and narrow agency focus is unusual and merits verification of contract justifications and competitive-exemption documentation.