Fraudhound
← Back to watchlist

ILLUMINA, INC.

UEI KMW3CRWNAAF3 · SOFTWARE PUBLISHERS

Primary agency: Department of Health and Human Services

Composite

0.534

↓ 0.019 vs prior day

Percentile

99.9th

among flagged today

Lifetime $

$78.1M

across all federal awards

Awards

801

lifetime count

Detectors fired today:Benford's LawModification GrowthIsolation ForestSole-Source Concentration

Scored July 29, 2026 · HHS

The brief

Illumina fired four detectors. Benford's law analysis found the leading digits of 783 award amounts deviate significantly from expected frequency, with digit 1 appearing 35 percent of the time versus the expected 30 percent, and digit 2 appearing 26 percent versus 18 percent expected. Modification growth on contract 75F40123D00001 expanded at a ratio of 254 times, far exceeding the 11-fold average for peers in NAICS 325413. The isolation forest algorithm flagged the entity as a multivariate outlier based on its combination of high award volume, extreme concentration in two agencies, and very low competition ratio. Sole-source awards comprise 88 percent of Illumina's portfolio, substantially above the 46 percent median for its 81 NAICS peers.

The Benford test yielded a Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic of 0.137 with p-value 3.2e-13 across 783 transactions. The modification growth z-score reached 7.67 sigmas. The isolation forest raw anomaly score was -0.75 with 5 percent contamination assumption. Sole-source concentration z-score was 1.78 sigmas, with 692 of 783 awards sole-sourced.

These statistical anomalies warrant scrutiny but do not prove fraud. Illumina's scale—78 million lifetime obligations across 801 awards—and its role as a major equipment supplier to HHS may explain concentrated agency relationships and high modification frequency in long-term contracts. The Benford deviation could reflect genuine business patterns in pricing rather than manipulation. The peer group for sole-source comparison includes only 81 entities, limiting statistical power. Industry context and contract-level documentation would clarify whether these patterns reflect legitimate procurement practices.

Auto-generated by AI · Methodology →

Detector breakdown

Benford's Law

Score 1.000

Looks for unnatural patterns in the first digit of award amounts. Real-world dollar amounts follow a predictable distribution where the digit "1" appears in ~30% of values. Deviations can indicate manipulation or manufactured numbers.

Finding for this entity

KS statistic
0.1372
p-value
3.18 × 10^-13
Transactions
783
How to read Benford's Law

Modification Growth

Score 0.997

Detects parent contracts whose modifications grew much faster than peer contracts in the same NAICS code. Extreme growth can mean scope creep, inadequate competition, or post-award gaming.

Finding for this entity

Contract
75F40123D00001
Growth ratio
254.0×
Peer average
11.4×
Z-score
7.67
How to read Modification Growth

Isolation Forest (Multivariate Outlier)

Score 0.906

Machine learning method that finds contractors whose overall profile — agency mix, sole-source rate, NAICS spread, modification frequency — is statistically unlike anyone else's.

Finding for this entity

Anomaly score (raw)
-0.751
Contamination
0.05
How to read Isolation Forest

Sole-Source Concentration

Score 0.685

Contractors that win far more non-competitive awards than industry peers. Sole-source contracts are legal and sometimes necessary; extreme concentration is unusual.

Finding for this entity

Sole-source share
88.4%
Sole-source awards
692
Total awards
783
Peer median share
45.8%
Peer count
81
Z-score
1.78
How to read Sole-Source Concentration

Score over time

0.000.250.50May 28, 2026Jul 29, 2026

Composite over 3 days · rank 8 today (was #14 on May 28, 2026)

Flagged contracts

Contracts that triggered one or more detectors above.

Award IDAmountDateCompetitionTriggeredSource
75F40123D00001Modification GrowthUSAspending →

View all contracts for ILLUMINA, INC. on USAspending.gov →