AMERISOURCEBERGEN DRUG CORP

Three detectors fired for AmerisourceBergen Drug Corp. Benford's law analysis found significant deviation in the leading-digit distribution of award amounts, with a Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic of 0.182 and p-value near zero across 113,876 transactions. The modification growth detector identified extreme acceleration in a single parent contract, with modifications growing at a ratio 24 times faster than peers in pharmaceutical distribution. The isolation forest algorithm flagged the entity as a multivariate outlier, driven primarily by its massive award count and total obligated value combined with very high competition ratios and low modification frequency.

The worst-performing contract, SPE2DB22D2206, showed a modification growth ratio of 3,969 compared to a NAICS average of 163, yielding a z-score of 8.72. Benford's test observed digit "3" leading 23.8 percent of amounts versus an expected 12.5 percent, while digit "1" appeared in only 11.9 percent of cases against an expected 30.1 percent. The isolation forest raw anomaly score was -0.749 with a contamination parameter of 0.05.

These statistical signals warrant scrutiny but do not establish fraud. AmerisourceBergen is a major pharmaceutical distributor with legitimate reasons for high award volume and dollar totals. The Benford deviation may reflect pricing structures or contract-bundling practices common in pharmaceutical supply. The modification growth spike on a single contract requires investigation but could reflect legitimate scope changes. The entity's dominance in its peer group and reliance on competitive awards mitigate some concerns, though the scale of operations limits the utility of peer comparisons.