ROCKWELL COLLINS, INC.

Three detectors fired for Rockwell Collins. Benford's Law analysis of leading digits in 805 award amounts showed a statistically significant deviation from expected frequency distribution, with a p-value of 0.030. Modification growth on contract W15P7T16D0003 expanded at an extreme rate relative to peers in aircraft parts manufacturing, with a z-score of 19.07 indicating the growth ratio of 32,316 far exceeds the NAICS average of 142. Isolation Forest flagged the entity as a multivariate outlier with a score of 0.89, driven by concentration of all awards from a single agency despite operating across 21 NAICS codes.

The Benford test observed 27.1 percent of amounts starting with digit 1 versus an expected 30.1 percent, with the KS statistic of 0.051 across 805 transactions. The modification growth ratio of 32,316 compares to a peer average of 142 in NAICS 334220. The isolation anomaly reflects a feature vector showing 9.7 billion in lifetime obligations, 805 awards, but only one unique awarding agency and a 0.086 competition ratio.

These statistical signals warrant scrutiny but do not establish fraud. Benford deviations can occur in legitimate datasets, particularly those with structural constraints or industry-specific pricing. The extreme modification growth may reflect legitimate contract expansion in defense manufacturing. The isolation score is driven primarily by single-agency concentration and low competition ratio, which could reflect Rockwell Collins' established position as a major DoD supplier rather than misconduct. The large peer group and long award history provide context that mitigates fly-by-night risk.